Friday, January 3, 2020

Qassim Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, killed in Baghdad by U.S. Airstrike. This is the equivalent of Iran killing the Sec Def. or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He was the most powerful Iranian military official second only to the Supreme Leader. Saying this is big is an understatement.

2 days in and 2020 is already a shitshow.....

Israel avoided assassinating Soleimani because of retaliation, now the idiot in chief has exposed US troops with rash incompetence.

Qassim Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, killed in Baghdad by U.S. Airstrike. This is the equivalent of Iran killing the Sec Def. or Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He was the most powerful Iranian military official second only to the Supreme Leader. Saying this is big is an understatement.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/airstrike-kills-top-iran-general-qassim-suleimani-baghdad-airport-iraqi-n1109821
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/iraqi-state-tv-officials-gen-soleimani-the-head-of-irans-elite-quds-force-has-been-killed-in-an-airstrike/2020/01/02/9e64a45a-2dc6-11ea-bffe-020c88b3f120_story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/01/us-kills-top-iran-general-qassem-soleimani/604378/

Where’s the press conference? The announcement from the whitehouse? The anything? He tweeted a picture of an American flag and no caption (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1212924762827046918/photo/1)

Joe Biden on Killing of Qassem Soleimani: ‘Trump Tossed a Stick of Dynamite Into a Tinderbox’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-biden-says-trump-tossed-a-stick-of-dynamite-into-a-tinderbox-with-killing-of-qassem-soleimani

Trump ordered an assassination of a high-level official in a country where he unilaterally broke a treaty because he didn't like that it was signed by his predecessor. What should have been a new era of cooperation is now looking more and more like it's going to be another never-ending war in the Middle East.

US Embassy Tells Its Citizens To Leave Iraq Immediately
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/03/iran-general-qassem-suleimani-killed-us-trump-drone-strike-baghdad-reaction-live-updates

Soleimani was an enemy of the United States. That’s not a question. The question is this - as reports suggest, did America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization, the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a potential massive regional war? ~ Chris Murphy https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1212913952436445185

This is by far the most serious day of Trump’s presidency this far. For 3 years I have said that we’ve been lucky to avoid any major crises under this President. This evening that appears to have changed and it was all entirely self created. ~ Ilan Goldenberg (Middle East Security Director at CNAS)
https://twitter.com/ilangoldenberg/status/1212923947500625921

That's a bad sign. Many are already assuming that the US is about to get pulled into a hot war with Iran. But the opposite could also happen-- we get kicked out of Iraq & Iran increases its (already considerable) influence in Iraq and Syria. Precarious moment.
https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1212923490623295490

Trump pointed out many times that Obama would start a war with Iran to keep his presidency. That never happened now I guess trump will do what he can to make that come true for himself. (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/141604554855825408?s=19)

Did anyone else find it pretty striking that a NY Times opinion piece, Hypersonic Missles Are a Game Changer (by Steven Simon), published this afternoon (just hours before the strike) had the line: "What if the former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, visits Baghdad for a meeting and you know the address?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/opinion/hypersonic-missiles.html

Inside information aside, I wouldn't surprised that a guy like this could see the writing on the wall: Steven Simon is a former United States National Security Council senior director for the Middle East and North Africa. He also previously served as the Executive Director IISS-US and Corresponding Director IISS-Middle East and as a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute based in Washington, D.C. He was Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a Spring 2008 Berlin Prize Fellow. Steven Simon is now a visiting professor at Colby College in Maine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Simon

Reminder: Trump denies that Russia attacked the 2016 election, but he also accuses Obama of being weak for not stopping it (and does so repeatedly)
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/01/misleading-trump-campaign-ad-attacks-obama-over-russian-hacking-1296787
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-acknowledges-russian-election-meddling-tweet-criticizing-obama-n776381

So basically a bunch of damning uncensored emails and reports got into Democrat Congress members hands. Democrats got Trump dead to rights on impeachment. Then all the sudden Trump jumps into a war with Iran, without informing Congress. And all Republican members of Congress draft a letter to the Supreme Court to re-do Roe v. Wade.

Never mind Russia. China is laughing at us right now. They’re pouring money into modernization and projecting influence and we are wasting trillions chasing the next bogeyman while our infrastructure crumbles and our allies turn away.

China uses eminent domain to build high speed rail. US uses eminent domain to keep out people who want to pick tomatoes for $10/hr

Here's a whole thread from Yashar Ali on Twitter: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212913366492016640
  1. There are unconfirmed reports that Qasem Soleimani commander of Qods Force (Iran's external security agency) has been killed in drone strikes. If true, this will be a major moment in US-Iran relations & Supreme Leader will undoubtedly see this as a major provocation/act of war
  2. I can't understate how major this is. Not just a moment in US-Iran relations, but a major global event. People comparing this to killing Osama Bin Laden don't know what they're talking about. This is way more significant. Equivalent to another country killing US Vice-President
  3. Soleimani is extraordinarily close to the Supreme Leader of Iran. Soleimani reports directly to the Supreme Leader, the Qods force is technically part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which also reports to the Supreme Leader. He is more powerful than Iran's President
  4. If you want to understand how powerful Soleimani is all you have to look to is a text he sent to David Petraeus. This text is an extraordinary (yet unsurprising) display of power. Especially since Iran has an elected president and foreign minister. https://theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/28/qassem-suleimani-iran-iraq-influence
  5. Qods force & its proxies are responsible for assassinations, terrorism, and unconventional warfare that Iran supports in countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
  6. Qods Force is also responsible for successful and attempted terrorist acts and assassinations in countries like Argentina, the United States, India, and Germany.
  7. Watch this clip of Soleimani speaking to understand what his rhetoric is like. He was/is a hardliners hardliner. (here is the specific tweet with the embedded video: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212913371160305664?s=20)
  8. As I said in the beginning of this thread, Iran's Supreme Leader is going to see this as a major provocation/act of war. He will respond in a significant manner. We shouldn't be surprised to see major cyber attacks against the US as an example
  9. We shouldn't be surprised to see the Supreme Leader order covert operations all over the globe (including, dare I say, in the US) that involve assassinations & other acts of terrorism. We should expect to see the most significant/aggressive response
  10. if what I'm expecting sounds alarmist...it's because this is a major, major event. I'm not interested in getting into whether it was the right or wrong decision but dealing with this plainly, if true, it was a major, major decision.
  11. To call Qasem Soleimani just a terrorist is to understate his role significantly and that's where the danger lies in killing him without a plan for the reaction. He ordered and directed billions of dollars to organizations that engaged in terrorism. He is/was an evil man
  12. But killing Soleimani is not like killing the head of a terrorist org. It's like killing the head of a terrorist organization and a head of state. You have to treat it as such and the US has not DIRECTLY engaged in assassinations on that level in decades.
  13. CNN's @arwaCNN says it best just now: "we are in uncharted territory."
  14. For those who think Iran will respond with just traditional warfare, you're wrong. Solemani is responsible for, at a minimum, hundreds of US Soldiers deaths & much much more. But imagine how US would respond to a sitting VPbeing killed. Iran will respond at a similar level.
  15. The president just tweeted this. https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1212924762827046918?s=21
  16. The Iranian government has confirmed the death of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq. Now that it's confirmed, allow me to say in plain English...this is a holy shit moment. Again not just for US-Iran relations, not just in the Middle East, but a holy shit global event
  17. Breaking: The Pentagon has released a statement that "at the direction of the President " the United States has killed Qasem Soleimani
  18. I find this to be puzzling. Soleimani has always been planning covert/overt action. Why now? Killing him to deter further plans (as statement notes) isn’t going to stop any of that. Punishing him for US Mil deaths is justified but is USG prepped for covert response? (link to specific tweet for picture of statement: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212933074155003904?s=20)
  19. BTW when I say Soleimani was the 2nd most powerful man in Iran I am referring to foreign policy. President Rouhani has a great deal of domestic influence. But given Iran's expansion in the Mid East (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, & Yemen) - Soleimani was 2nd only to Supreme Leader
  20. I'm seeing people say that Soleimani was next in line to be Supreme Leader. That is absolutely not the case. Supreme Leaders are clerics, not military leaders. Iran doesn't work that way. Plus Soleimani's power came from being in the shadows, not dealing w/ domestic policy
  21. Statement from Iran’s Foreign Minister @JZarif on the US operation that killed Qasem Soleimani: “The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism.” (link to specific tweet with picture of tweeted response: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212949670210654209?s=20)
  22. Statement from Gen David Petraeus (Ret) who knows a lot about Soleimani and had direct communication with him (see earlier in thread) Via @jaketapper (link to tweet: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1212955544408870912?s=20)
  23. I generally agree with this tweet. The Iranian regime is not suicidal. But they love to use covert action and that is actually much more destabilizing and terrifying than launching some missiles. https://twitter.com/gerardaraud/status/1212955685086007298?s=21
So, yeah. This is.. not good. And, because there's always fucking tweets for it:
https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/1212932900825337857?s=20

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