List of Democratic Candidates Likely To Make 3rd Debate

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-whos-in-danger-of-missing-the-third-debate/

--- For the third debate, candidates will need to meet both a polling threshold and a fundraising threshold to qualify — previously it was just one or the other. And those thresholds have been raised from what they were before:

    Instead of needing 65,000 unique donors to qualify, candidates will need 130,000.
    Instead of needing to achieve 1 percent in each of three polls, candidates need to hit 2 percent in each of four polls released between June 28 and August 28. The criteria for which polls qualify has also been amended slightly.

--- Technically, no candidates have yet qualified for the third debate because only polls released beginning on June 28 count toward it. However, we can make some good guesses about who’s likely to make it. Five candidates — Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke — already had at least 130,000 unique donors as of their first-quarter fundraising reports. Joe Biden had almost 97,000 donors in his first 24 hours, so it’s safe to assume he’ll hit 130,000 soon if he hasn’t already. (The Biden campaign did not respond to a request for an updated donor count.) Andew Yang said on Wednesday that he had only about 20,000 more donors to go, which should also be no problem.

--- The polling criterion might be harder for some candidates, including Yang. Only eight candidates — Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker — have routinely polled at 2 percent or higher. And the relatively narrow time frame from when polls are considered will make it harder for candidates to get lucky.


Which candidates are good bets to make the third debate?

Sanders     9     525,000 as of 3/31     Almost certain
Warren     9     135,000 as of 3/31     Almost certain
Harris     9     138,000 as of 3/31     Almost certain
Biden     9     96,926 as of 4/26     Almost certain
Buttigieg     8     158,550 as of 3/31     Almost certain
O’Rourke     9     163,000 as of 3/31     Almost certain†
Klobuchar     8     65,000+ as of 5/3     Probable
Booker     8     65,000+ as of 5/3     Probable
Yang     1     110,000 as of 5/29     Tossup
Castro     2     65,000+ as of 5/3     Tossup
Gabbard     1     65,000+ as of 4/10     Tossup at best
Gillibrand     1     <65,000     Tossup at best
Inslee     0     65,000+ as of 5/24     Tossup at best
Hickenlooper     1     <65,000     Tossup at best
Williamson     0     65,000+ as of 5/9     Leaning against
Ryan     1     <65,000     Lots of work to do
Bullock     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do
Delaney     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do
Swalwell     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do
de Blasio     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do
Bennet     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do
Moulton     0     <65,000     Lots of work to do