The recent 5 day conflict between Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Israel may seem like just another escalatory round in/over Gaza - and in many respects it is. But this round, I'd argue, has more strategic (and potentially longer-lasting) implications than people realize.

Israeli security strategy: Stated goal of operations was to degrade Palestinian Islamic Jihad, hammer it so it won’t/can’t fire rockets again in near term. Sure But bigger strategic objective was to restore Israeli deterrence after 5 months of political/social chaos annd increased rocket fire, terror attacks.

Basically to show everyone (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran etc) Israel is still able and willing to use force even at risk of sustained campaign. IDF will stay united, opposition will support, public won’t be on streets protesting it. Restore deterrence.

Collapse of ‘united front’ thesis: For months we’ve heard of growing ‘ring of fire’ surrounding Israel - Iran and proxies closing in, any escalation will lead to multi-front war. Not only did other fronts stay quiet but couldn’t even get united front *inside* Gaza by way of Hamas & Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

PIJ capabilities: 2nd round of open conflict ALONE vs IDF in 9 months, 3rd in 3.5 yrs. Sustained (albeit sporadic) rocket fire into Israel for number of days despite losing senior leadership. Tellingly- bit less crowing in Israel now re "biggest hit ever" to PIJ, yrs to recover etc.

“War of Attrition” Doctrine: Whether by accident or deliberate choice PIJ introduced ‘war of attrition’ doctrine (“tense quiet”) to Gaza fighting, ie longevity over intensity re rocket fire. Keep south Israel under siege, central Israel on alert for days w/out firing 1 rocket.

Collapse of Israel’s Gaza strategy? Since ~2018 Israel’s strategy is to give economic benefits to Hamas in return for quiet. Hamas as sovereign should guarantee quiet. 4 rounds in 4 yrs now, w the length of time bw them shortening

Israeli politics: Netanyahu (& his govt) had been cratering in polls. Now seeing recovery Rightwing pressure re govt being too “soft” on terror & rockets etc. Ben Gvir was symptom of this, not its cause. Bibi did what rightwing base demanded, pressure relieved...for now.